Iran, India Israel, Pakistan and The Bomb

I do not support proliferation of nuclear weapons, for Iran or other countries. However, in the case of Iran, I believe the threat of Iran ever employing nuclear weapons is overblown.  One should look beyond the Iranian government’s intemperate rhetoric.  The government knows full well that a nuclear attack on any country would bring swift and catastrophic retaliation that would result in destruction of the Iranian government and much of the country’s infrastructure. Blustering rhetoric the Iranians are guilty of, but they are not fools

The hyperbole, threats and scare mongering by the US and Israel are surely more about protecting Israel’s nuclear exclusivity in the Middle East. However there is a far more serious issue about nuclear weaponry at stake.

Instead of worrying about Iran, one should be debating what to do should Pakistan go critical and fall into the hands of radical fundamentalists. Such a regime would be far more likely to launch a nuclear attack on either India or Israel than Iran would on Israel or the US. Should such a regime change take place in Pakistan, what would the response be? Bomb the nuclear facilities in Pakistan, initiate yet another war? Encourage India to invade Pakistan and trigger a wider regional conflict of frightening proportions?

This same question about nuclear proliferation could put be put with regard to any other country not considered an ally of the US.  North Korea is far more unstable and less predictable than Iran, yet one hears little in the way of threats by the US or Europe to bomb or invade North Korea.

US Foreign Policy, an Antonym for Realpolitik

Realpolitik, a definition: Realpolitik (German: real “realistic”, “practical” or “actual”; and Politik “politics”) refers to politics or diplomacy based primarily on practical considerations, rather than ideological notions or moralistic premises;

There is no listed Antonym for Realpolitik, but one can be found in the practice of Foreign Policy of the United States. The US has practiced an unrealistic, impractical policy since the end of World War II and it is a policy that unusually attracts bi-partisan support. Both the Democrats and Republicans are guilty of pursuing a policy clearly inimical to the US national interest.

The US foreign policy is the antithesis of practical no-nonsense national interest, diplomacy. All one needs to do to understand this is the recent row with China, the world’s second largest economy, the world’s number one exporter and most importantly, the US’s major creditor holding over $700 billion in US treasury notes. Without China’s purchase of US debt, the US would be on the brink of financial collapse. In addition, China’s economy is driving the global economic recovery. Yet, rather than applauding China, the US has done all possible to provoke and alienate China by imposing tariffs on Chinese imports at the behest of US labour unions; catering to a the Tibetan Dali Lama as a head of state when he is only a religious leader; supplying arms to Taiwan, regarded by China as a breakaway province. In addition to China’s importance as an economic power it also wields a Security Council veto. It can put a stop to any coordinated attempt to impose sanctions on Iran and could withdraw from the six party talks aimed at containing North Korea signalling the death knell of those negotiations. For the US in particular there is a huge risk in antagonising China. Presently, China buys US debt in order to prop up the US financial structure and thereby its major export market. However, should China’s domestic economy and those of its Asian neighbours mature, China would no longer be dependent on exports to the US market and no longer find it necessary to purchase US debt. At that point the danger to the US economy becomes acute.

Then, there is Georgia that foolishly began a war with Russia and invaded an inconsequential breakaway province, South Ossetia, which had opted to join Russia. The US inserted itself into the conflict supporting Georgia, which was clearly at fault, thereby angering Russia and went so far as to express support for Georgia’s application to join NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Georgia, situated in the Caucasus region on the Black Sea, far removed from the North Atlantic. Little wonder Russia looked upon this bit of foolery as an attempt to gain a military foothold into the Russian sphere. Somehow the US, which regarded the Soviet presence in Cuba as a threat to its national security in 1962 and invasion of its sphere could not understand why Russia should object to the US having a military presence in the Caucasus. Russia, no longer the formidable foe that was its predecessor state, the USSR, is still an important nuclear armed global power, and a member of the five nation UN Security council, like China, with veto power. Without Russia’s support in the six power talks on North Korea negotiations would grind to a halt. Again, without the support of Russia, there can be no effective UN Security resolution regarding Iran.

Without a doubt the most grievous and damaging mistakes made in the name of US non-Realpolitik has been the unstinting support of Israel. That support has led to the alienation of the entire Muslim world and has been at the crux of the rise of radical fundamentalism and attendant terrorism. The US, to mollify and gain the support of the US based pro Israeli lobby, has sacrificed relations with the entire Middle East, and large parts of South East Asia all in order to accommodate a nation state of no strategic value. The only value Israel now has is as an ally is to counteract terrorism, the cause of which was the creation of the state of Israel, and the US support of subsequent Israeli policies. One cannot turn back the clock and remove the state of Israel, but if the US were to be a truly honest and impartial broker in its dealings with the Palestinian problem, perhaps something could be salvaged from what is a geopolitical disaster.  I fear, however, matters have now deteriorated to the point that not even a two state solution is possible, or even desirable. The bloodshed, acrimony and deep-seated hatred is so imbued in the Palestinians that the people will never fully accept such a compromise. In the long term, as one Israeli friend said, demographics will prevail, a separate Jewish state will not survive but will revert to a pre-war single state embracing both the Muslin and Jewish peoples. In the meanwhile, both the Israelis and the Palestinians will continue to suffer.

As so often much of the US foreign policy has been formulated to accommodate US domestic ethnic and religious pressure and lobby groups rather than for the national interest. And when one looks at the current conflicts and potential ones on the boil, most of them can be laid at the doorstep of a deeply flawed US foreign policy.

The EU, a failed State?

The latest economic crisis to arise is that of Greece, a profligate country that has squandered its resources and is now reduced to holding a begging bowl for a financial bail out. Were it just Greece that suffers, one could shrug it off and leave it to the Greeks to sort out. The problem is that Greece is a member state of the EU, and of the EMU, the European Monetary Union, comprised of 16 countries that employ the Euro currency. Thus, the economy of each member state redounds not only upon the other states, but globally. The supposed deficit maximum for all member states is 3% but Greece's deficit has ballooned to 13%! “Greece’s budget gap, which its previous government originally forecast would be 3.7 percent in 2009, was largely the result of “an insufficient response” by Greek authorities as well as expenditure overruns, the commission said. Economic statistics provided by Greece “were completely wrong,”

That, alas, is not the only delinquent country. Greece is only one of the infamous PIIGS countries - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain - all of which have exceeded the theoretical 3% deficit limit. Other countries, even major economies as France and the UK are on the cusp of surpassing the same limit. The UK, once a leading economy in Europe and the world, although not a member of the EMU Eurozone, now has a Debt to GDP ratio of 456%! Worse, there is now talk of the imminent collapse of Sterling.   The 3% deficit limit has become a joke. There is no fiscal discipline, just empty threats to punish the delinquent nations, and because of the fear of a domino effect, no punishment, instead, bail outs. 

What happened to the dream of creating a major economic union to rival the world's leading economy, the United States?

The answer is 'o'er leaping ambitions'.

The EU began with a core of six countries in 1957, comprised at that time of the major powers in Europe: Belgium, France, Italy Luxembourg, the Netherlands, West Germany - and expanded shortly thereafter to include the UK, Denmark and Ireland. All well and good, but then the rot set in. The EU, in an unseemly rush to incorporate other countries and expand its influence and economic clout, began willy nilly to admit country markets with economies and political cultures incompatible with the core structure. In the 1980s came Greece, Spain and Portugal, and, after the fall of the wall, a veritable flood of new admissions from underdeveloped nations from East Europe. The current membership now numbers 27 countries with another eight awaiting admission: Croatia, Macedonia, Turkey, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, and Iceland.  Iceland? Yes, Iceland, which has just suffered the collapse of three banks and a financial meltdown. 

As more countries with even more disparate cultures and economies are added, the greater the risk of collapse of the EU and the Euro. 

Post Script

As much as China is pilloried for currency manipulation, and authoritarianism by the vaunted free market countries of Europe and the United States it has the healthiest economy in the world. In terms of both Public and External Debt China ranks well below the US and major European economies

Public Debt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

External Debt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Debt to GDP Ratio

Even more impressive is China's Debt to GDP Ratio, 5% against USA 84%, Germany 155%, France 210%.